Bullish products are bullish! Global alcohol ethoxylate demand has continued to rise in the past five years!
The IHS Markit report shows that China has overtaken North America and Western Europe as the largest producer of detergent alcohol ethoxylates (AE). Driven by the continuous improvement of China's living standards, China's leading position in alcohol ethoxylates will further increase in the next five years. IHS Markit estimates that the average annual growth rate of global AE production from 2019 to 2024 is 2.3%, and the average annual growth rate of fatty alcohol ether sulfate (AES) production is 3.1%, which will increase the production of detergent alcohol ethoxylates to 2.352 million tons. , A net increase of 300,000 tons, an increase of 15%.
AE is a non-ionic surfactant widely used in industrial, institutional and commercial markets. Because it can effectively remove oil from the body, AE is also widely used in laundry detergents and liquid detergent products, but it can roughen the skin and also limits the use of AE in other household cleaners.
According to a report by IHS Markit, a total of 2.1 million tons of detergent alcohols were ethoxylated in the world in 2019, of which 43% were directly used as fatty alcohol ethoxylates in product formulas, and the rest was converted into AES.
According to forecasts, China's detergent AE production will increase 87,000 tons to 600,000 tons from 2019 to 2024, accounting for 29% of the net increase, and will become the largest share of the net increase, of which 66,000 tons are AES. For many years, AES has been China's main surfactant, accounting for 60% of detergent alcohol consumption in 2019, mainly sodium dodecyl ether sulfate (SLES) and ammonium dodecyl ether sulfate (ALES). SLES is an important ingredient in laundry detergents, household dishwashing liquids, industrial and institutional (I & I) cleaners, shower gels, facial cleansers and shampoos. ALES is less harmful to the skin and is often used as a formula for high-quality personal care products.
Over the past 10 years, China's liquid synthetic detergent production has increased at a rate of 6.5% per year, while powdered detergent production has decreased at a rate of 0.8% per year. This transition is also accompanied by a major shift in surfactant formulations from linear sodium alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS) to AES. IHS Markit said that the liquid detergent market accounted for 61.7% of the entire detergent market in 2019, compared to 46.0% in 2010. "
With the improvement of living standards in China and the normal operation of ethoxylate plants, the demand for detergent alcohol is expected to grow strongly in the next 10 years. IHS Markit said, "Although AES is also facing competition from fatty acid methyl ester sulfonate (MES) in liquid detergent applications, AES consumption is expected to increase by 3% per year by 2024. "
IHS Markit predicts that detergent alcohol ethoxylates in North America will reach 554,000 tons in 2024, an increase of 57,000 tons from 2019, accounting for 19% of the global net increase over the same period. In 2019, North American detergent alcohol ethoxylate output was about 497,000 tons, of which 63% was further converted into AES. From 2019 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of AE directly used is expected to be 2.4%, while the annual growth rate of AES production is expected to be 2.1%.
Statistics show that in 2019, China's AE directly used was about 220,000 tons and consumed 88,000 tons of detergent alcohol. As more and more concentrated laundry liquids and powders enter the market, IHS Markit predicts that China's AE production will grow at a rate of 4.3% per year from 2019 to 2024.
The use of AE and AES will continue to increase, because laundry detergents need more efficient surfactants to make up for the lack of effective additives. Another 11% of AE and AES products entered the household dishwashing liquid market.
In addition, the use of household hard surface cleaner formulations is also increasing, accounting for approximately 5% of AE and AES consumption in 2019. About 10% of AE and AES production is used in personal care products, mainly shampoos, hand soaps, and body wash.
In 2019, non-home applications account for 16% of AE and AES consumption. IHS Markit points out that in many industrial applications, AE is also competing with nonylphenol polyoxyethylene ether (NPE). However, in terms of environmental protection, people are gradually accelerating the replacement of AE to NPE and further accelerating the overall growth of AE.
By 2024, Western European alcohol ethoxylate production will grow slowly, with an average annual growth rate of AE of only 1.3% and an average annual growth rate of AES of 1.1%. According to statistics, in 2019 Western Europe produced 315,000 tons of AE and AES output was 114,000 tons. IHS Markit estimates that by 2024, AE and AES in Western Europe will increase by a total of 28,000 tons, which is only 9% of the global increase.
In contrast, Southeast Asia's output has grown significantly. In 2019, Southeast Asia produced a total of 41,000 tons of detergent AE, and another 169,000 tons of AES, which together accounted for only 10% of the global total. By 2024, the average annual growth rate of AE in Southeast Asia will be 3.6% and the annual growth rate of AES will be 4.2%. This region will account for 15% of global growth.