Evaluating the impact of the epidemic is not on specific values. The key is to enable the economy to "turn"

Securities Times reporter: What aspects do you think the impact of the epidemic on the economy? It can be expected that the current consumption situation has been seriously affected. If it is viewed from a longer-term perspective, what impact will it have?

Chen Daofu: The ultimate impact of the epidemic on the economy depends on the effectiveness of the epidemic response and prevention and control, as well as our economic response. The epidemic has led to shrinking, shifting and postponing demand, affecting how much income will be realized, when it will be realized, and by whom and through which means, etc. The economic clearing, transformation and concentration will be more intense. From the current point of view, the epidemic occurred during the traditional Spring Festival, which is a peak season for consumption and a low season for production. Large-scale migration of personnel occurred years ago, which brought additional difficulties to the resumption of work. From a macro perspective, consumption accounts for a relatively high proportion in the national economy, and the disappearance of some consumer demand will have a significant impact on the growth of the national economy. However, the current domestic company's capacity utilization rate is not high. If the epidemic situation is properly controlled, the impact on the annual economy may Hedging will be due to factors such as late overtime and consumption rebound.

However, it is particularly important to pay attention to the fact that a large number of small, medium and micro enterprises have more serious "basic illnesses", are at the "lifeline" stage of life and death margins and financial difficulties, require short-term, unexpected transfers and fluctuations, and new consumption modes such as online. The accelerated popularization is prone to the risk of centralized bankruptcy exit. Assessing and predicting the impact of the epidemic on the economy does not lie in specific values, but helps to act more accurately. The accurate forecasting and evaluation of "outsiders" does not help the healthy development of the situation. Under the premise of maintaining necessary epidemic prevention and control measures, the key is to enable the economy to "turn around", and small and medium-sized enterprises can cope with the difficulties and create social value. Seeing the difficulties of the micro-subjects, through policies and specific actions, reducing losses, eliminating the difficulties of seeing, and making the predictions "distorted".